An opportunity is worth pursuing when the best available evidence supports a specific next commitment and the unresolved risks are small enough to test. “Worth pursuing” does not automatically mean “build the full product.” It can mean proceed to a pilot, narrow the offer, collect a missing fact, or decline.

Put alternatives on the same board

Compare at least three routes: the proposed Market, a smaller test, and a credible alternative such as a directory, partnership or existing channel. Use the same buyer task, geography and time horizon for each. Otherwise a large opportunity description will unfairly beat a concrete low-cost alternative.

Grade claims by evidence type

A direct observation has a source and date. A participant claim has an owner but may need verification. An inference explains its reasoning. An assumption is a planning input. Keep these labels visible in the decision brief. Do not average them into one confidence score that implies more precision than the sources allow.

Find the decision-changing uncertainties

Ask which unknowns could reverse the decision: insufficient providers, weak buyer intent, difficult data maintenance, unclear conversion path, regulatory barriers or unit economics. A risk register is useful only if each material risk has an owner, a possible test and a response when the test fails.

Use a real decision artifact

The public Serbia Finance Market sample on the 1000&1 Launch page shows a decision summary, data-readiness extract, commercial sensitivity and selected versus rejected scenarios. Its confidential inputs are redacted. The transferable method is to explain why a route was chosen and what would disprove it, not to reuse its conclusions for a different market.

Define the next commitment

A go decision should state the first release boundary: categories, participant sample, source standard, launch channel, budget owner and review point. A test-first decision should state the evidence that will unlock that release. A stop decision should preserve the reason so the team does not reopen the same unsupported idea six months later with a new label.

A living Market is justified when ongoing structure, participant discovery and updates will create value beyond a one-time answer. The 1000&1 comparison of Market, directory and marketplace is a useful companion when choosing the asset shape.